The Trade Creation Effect of China Inland Pilot Free Trade Zone: Expanding Imports or Increasing Exports [in Chinese]

Abstract: Compared with the eastern coastal areas, under the background of relatively low degree of opening to the outside world, can China inland pilot free trade zone effectively stimulate its trade creation effect? And are there any differences in the double effects of expanding imports and increasing exports? By setting the approval of the third batch of inland free trade zones in March 2017 as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper adopted the synthetic control method to study the trade creation effects of five inland free trade zones in Sichuan, Chongqing, Hubei, Henan, and Shanxi. The results show that there are significant trade creation effects of each inland free trade zone while there are obvious policy heterogeneity effects. It is easier for inland free trade zones to create trade by stimulating exports than by expanding imports. Under the negative adjustment effect of FDI and exchange rate, the inland free trade zones’ trade creation effect is mainly through increasing the degree of openness and improving the structure of foreign trade. This indicates in the subsequent approval and promotion of free trade zones, on one hand, it’ S necessary to focus on the characteristics of each region and play their institutional advantages; on the other hand, 计t is necessary to establish long term friendly trade relationship with other countries and expand export with the free trade zone policy support, so as to consolidate China’s favourable trade balance position in foreign trade.

  相较于东部沿海地区，在对外开放程度相对偏低的现实背景下，中国内陆型自贸区能否有效激发内陆地区的贸易创造效应？其扩大进口与刺激出口双重效应作用是否存在差异？本文通过2017年3月第三批获准设立自贸区中内陆型自贸区的设立为准自然实验，运用合成控制法对四川、重庆、湖北、河南和陕西五大内陆型自贸区的贸易创造效应展开探讨。研究结果表明：各内陆型自贸区总体贸易创造效应显著，但存在明显的政策效应异质性特征；相较于扩大进口贸易规模，内陆型自贸区更有利于通过刺激出口实现贸易创造；内陆型自贸区在外商直接投资和汇率水平的调节作用下，主要通过提升对外开放程度和改善对外贸易结构来发挥贸易创造效应。

结论与政策启示

  本文运用合成控制法探讨了四川、重庆、湖北、河南和陕西五大内陆型自贸区的贸易创造效应，及其对扩大进口和刺激出口的影响情况，结论与政策启示如下：

  第一，各内陆型自贸区总体存在贸易创造效应，但具有明显的异质性特征。总体上，各内陆型自贸区设立后的进出口贸易总额均出现了较明显增长。其中，四川、湖北和陕西自贸区均显著激发了贸易创造效应，河南自贸区在一定程度上被认为存在正向贸易创造效应，重庆自贸区的贸易创造效应则并不明显，后续安慰剂与稳健性检验均支持了该研究结果。这说明中国在全国范围内所推广的自贸区政策效果总体较为理想，同已有研究所证实的沿海型自贸区类似，内陆型自贸区设立同样可以发挥贸易创造效应的理想效果。此外，在加快复制推广已设立自贸区经验的同时，还需进一步考虑各地区区域特色，有重点地发挥后续自贸区在不同区域的制度优势。

  第二，相较于扩大进口贸易，各内陆型自贸区主要通过刺激出口实现贸易创造。本文研究表明，四川、重庆、湖北、河南和陕西五大内陆型自贸区普遍更有利于发挥扩大出口贸易，即有利于中国实现贸易顺差，且该实证结果的可靠性被稳健性检验所证实。今后中国在加快推进后续自贸区批复进程的同时，还需同其他国家和地区进一步建立长期友好的贸易伙伴关系，通过自贸区刺激出口贸易，进一步巩固中国在对外贸易中的“出超〞地位。

  第三，中国内陆型自贸区主要通过对外开放程度提高和贸易结构改善两种渠道实现贸易创造效应。FDI 和汇率水平具有与理论预期一致的负向调节效应，但主要体现在直接影响效应方面，对通过各中介渠道实现贸易创造的间接影响效应并不明显。因此，各自贸区除了通过提高对外开放程度、改善对外贸易结构等渠道实现贸易创造之外，可重点着眼于进一步加深金融服务对外开放，对标高阶贸易投资规则等渠道实现贸易创造。

基金项目

• 国家级大学生创新科研项目“‘高铁经济’对区域经济的差异影响及时效性分析”（201801049)