Coordinated Evolution and Mechanism Reconstruction of Quality Space, Efficiency Space and Dynamic Space of China's Regional Development since Reform and Opening-up [in Chinese]

Abstract: Since the reform and opening up, China has gradually entered the “deep water zone” and " tackling period", the problem of insufficient regional development imbalance has also become increasingly prominent. However, traditional regional development theory is difficult to provide theoretical guidance for the establishment of a more effective regional coordinated development mechanism in the new era. Under this realistic background, how to construct a more effective regional coordinated development mechanism? This is a very important and urgent problem to be solved.

  By selecting the panel data of 31 provinces and cities from 1978 to 2017, this paper uses TOPSIS, SE-DEA and SSA to measure the regional development quality space, efficiency space and dynamic space level of China. In the meanwhile, combining the Coupling Coordination Degree Model and Vector Autoregressive, the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and internal mechanism of regional development in China from the perspective of system theory and synergy have been mentioned.

  Research indicates: 1) Since the reform and opening up, the spatial and temporal evolution of the quality space, efficiency space and dynamic space of China’s eastern, central, western, northeastern and national regions have presented multi-stages, multi-levels and regional differences. 2) From the time dimension, China’s regional development quality space, efficiency space and dynamic space coupling coordination degree also have obvious multi-stage volatility variation characteristics; from the spatial dimension, it shows a stepwise decline from eastern to western and the northeast is obviously backward. However, the overall level is highly coordinated (0.8<C<1, 0.5<D≤0.8). 3) The joint test of each of China’s regional development quality space, efficiency space and dynamic space is the third one’s Granger Reason, and the impulse response and variance decomposition results also show there is a close relationship between the quality space, efficiency space and power space. 4) Based on the comprehensive system and synergistic theory, further explore the three parts of quality, efficiency and dynamic, two dimensions of time and space, two levels within and between regions and the direct and indirect effects of the two pathways on the main development of regional development of the new “Troika” in China’s regional development, and then reconstruct the mechanism of regional development. 5) According to the empirical analysis of the Cyclical Cumulative Causal Theory, the interaction and promotion of quality space, efficiency space and dynamic space in China’s regional development will be strengthened, in turn, the synergy effect of the new “Troika” can be exerted；furthermore, with the continuous enhancement of the accumulation effect of the new “Troika” in China’s regional development, it will bring about expansion effects to promote inter-regional equilibrium and coordinated development with the expansion effect and finally realize the Quality-Efficiency-Dynamic Cascade Reaction of multi-factor, multi-process and multi-scale coupling -efficiency-dynamic cascade reaction of regional development.

Key words: Regional Development；Quality Space；Efficiency Space；Dynamic Space；Synergistic Evolution；Mechanism Reconstruction

  随着我国改革开放逐步进入“深水区”和“攻坚期”，我国区域发展不平衡不充分问题也开始日益突显出来。而传统区域发展理论已较难为新时期建立更加有效的区域协调发展新机制提供理论指导，在这一现实背景下，如何切合现实地构建出更加有效的区域协调发展新机制？这是一个十分重要且亟待解决的现实问题。

  通过构建全国31个省市1978-2017年的面板数据，分别运用TOPSIS、SE-DEA和SSA模型对改革开放以来我国区域发展质量、效率和动力空间水平进行测度，并在此基础上结合耦合协调度模型和向量自回归模型，从系统论和协同学的角度对我国区域发展的时空演变特征及内在作用机制展开研究。

  实证结果表明：（1）自改革开放以来，我国东、中、西、东北和全国区域发展质量、效率和动力空间的时空演变水平均总体呈现出多阶段、多层次和区域差异显著等特征。（2）从时间维度看，我国区域发展质量、效率和动力空间耦合协调度同样具有明显的多阶段波动性变动特征；从空间维度看，总体呈现出了由东部向西部阶梯状递减、东北明显落后的区域差异；但总体处于高度协调耦合（0.8<C<1,0.5<D≤0.8）水平。（3）我国区域发展质量、效率和动力空间每两者的联合检验均为第三者的Granger原因；其脉冲响应和方差分解结果也再次表明了我国区域发展质量、效率和动力空间相互之间存在着联系紧密且相互促进的内在关系。（4）在综合系统论及协同学相关理论及实证结果的基础上，进一步探讨出了我国区域发展质量、效率和动力空间新“三驾马车”在质量、效率和动力3个部分，时间与空间2个维度，区域内与区域间2个层面以及直接与间接影响2个途径对区域发展的主要影响路径，进而重构了区域发展的内在作用机制。（5）根据循环累积因果理论实证分析结果，未来我国区域发展质量空间水平、效率空间和动力空间相互间的互动和促进作用还将得到加倍强化，进而可发挥出新“三驾马车”的合力作用；可见，随着我国区域发展新“三驾马车”积累效应的不断增强，将为促进区域间均衡协同发展带来扩张效应，最终实现区域发展多要素、多过程和多尺度耦合的质量-效率-动力级联反应。

关键词：区域发展；质量空间；效率空间；动力空间；协同演变；机制重构