Policy Evaluation Methods, Strategies and China Advantages of Multi-dimensional Spillover Effects: Perspective of Spatial Network Econometric Models [in Chinese]

Abstract: On the basis of combing the traditional policy effect evaluation methods such as fixed effect model, instrumental variable, difference in differences, regression discontinuity design and synthetic control method, this paper investigates policy evaluation methods under multidimensional spillover effects and emphasizes the unique advantages of spatial network models in addressing the challenges of multidimensional spillover effects. In particular, this paper focuses on the methods, identification and estimation problems of the spatial network econometric model when dealing with the inter-individual and inter-regional spillovers of a single policy, the dynamic changes of policy effects and spillover effeets, the multi-dimensional spillover effects of combined policies, and the existence of policy effects in highdimensional network spatial data.

The continuous improvement of China’s transportation, Internet and other hardware infrastructure constructions, as well as the increasing improvement of the soft environment such as the national unified market, provide an original fertile soil and China advantage for Chinese scholars to deeply explore the policy effect evaluation method. At a time when policy effect spillovers are becoming more complex, discussions in this paper can provide an important reference for the future development of policy evaluation methods.

  在梳理固定效应模型、工具变量法、双重差分法、断点回归设计、合成控制法等传统政策效应评估方法基础上，本文介绍了多维度溢出效应下的政策评估方法,并强调了空间网络计量模型应对多维溢出效应挑战的独特优势。特别地，本文重点探讨了空间网络计量模型在处理单一政策存在个体或区域间溢出、政策效应和溢出效应均存在动态变化、组合政策存在多维度效果溢出、政策效应存在于高维空间网络数据等四类情形时的政策评估方法、识别与估计问题。中国交通、互联网等硬件基础设施建设的不断完善，以及全国统一大市场等软环境的日益改善，成为提供中国学者深入探讨政策效应评估方法的原创沃土和独特优势。在政策效果溢出效应复杂化的当下，本文的探讨可为政策评估方法未来的发展提供重要参考。

基金项目

• 国家自然科学基金优秀青年项目（72222007）；国家自然科学基金面上项目（71973097）